{"id":1361,"date":"2026-09-20T14:44:09","date_gmt":"2026-09-20T14:44:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bahamakkawi.com\/?p=1361"},"modified":"2026-09-22T20:01:38","modified_gmt":"2026-09-22T20:01:38","slug":"challenges-of-foreign-policy-making-in-an-age-of-uncertainty-a-review-of-future-concepts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bahamakkawi.com\/en\/challenges-of-foreign-policy-making-in-an-age-of-uncertainty-a-review-of-future-concepts\/","title":{"rendered":"Challenges of Foreign Policy-Making in the \u201cAge of Uncertainty\u201d: A Review of Future Concepts"},"content":{"rendered":"In its supplement titled Future Concepts, which is devoted to analyzing modern and advanced theoretical concepts and propositions, Trending Events, published by the Future for Advanced Research and Studies Center in the United Arab Emirates, addressed in its latest issue\u2014published only a few days ago\u2014the challenges of foreign policy-making in what the journal termed the \u201cAge of Uncertainty.\u201d\n\nThe supplement included four important articles. The first was entitled \u201cTrends of Complexity in Foreign Policy-Making,\u201d the second \u201cThe Implications of the Interrelationship Between History and International Relations,\u201d the third \u201cThe Impact of Information on Foreign Policy Decision-Making,\u201d and the fourth \u201cObstacles to Rationality in Foreign Policy.\u201d\n\nAccording to the report, the theoretical and practical approaches to foreign policy-making are no longer fully capable of accommodating the exceptional transformations taking place at the domestic, regional, and global levels. Foreign policy-making has become characterized by continuous change, overlapping complexities, ambiguity, uncertainty, and a declining ability to predict future developments.\n\nThere has also emerged a clear overlap and contestation over the functions and roles of foreign policy. On the one hand, there is the traditional official role exercised through state diplomacy. On the other, some regions within states now conduct external activities known as para-diplomacy. There is also direct interaction among peoples, which has developed into what is commonly referred to as popular diplomacy, as well as second-track diplomacy, carried out by transnational corporations and global civil society organizations. These developments have blurred boundaries, created overlapping roles and responsibilities, and placed significant challenges before foreign policy decision-makers.\n\nForeign policy-making has therefore become increasingly complex. In addition to the involvement of multiple sub-systems in external decision-making, there is also a temporal dimension of complexity, in which the past and present interact in shaping the future. This is something that foreign policy decision-makers must recognize and incorporate into their calculations.\n\nThis complexity has also contributed to what may be described as a weakening of clear causal relationships. Simple phenomena are often characterized by identifiable cause-and-effect relationships, whereas complex phenomena such as contemporary foreign policy may be better understood through the Butterfly Effect model. Originally introduced by meteorologist Edward Lorenz, this model suggests that long-term weather prediction is extremely difficult because very small atmospheric changes may generate unexpected climatic consequences. In popular terms, \u201cthe flap of a butterfly\u2019s wings in China\u201d may, under the right conditions, trigger a sequence of atmospheric interactions that ultimately contributes to floods, hurricanes, or violent winds in America, Europe, or Africa.\n\nThe idea of the Butterfly Effect, however, has expanded far beyond meteorology and is now applied across various fields of science. It has become a broader philosophical proposition suggesting that an initially minor event, under conducive conditions, may generate a series of interconnected developments whose consequences are both unexpected and far greater than the original event itself. Applied to international politics, this means that a seemingly small development may lead to profound consequences if the necessary conditions are present, thereby increasing ambiguity and uncertainty.\n\nThe erosion of traditional boundaries and the growing integration brought about by advances in communications technology, together with the prevalence of unpredictability\u2014as illustrated by the September 11 attacks\u2014and the growing importance of networks as alternatives or supplements to traditional international actors because of their ability to bargain with and exert pressure on governments through linkage politics, all undoubtedly increase the pressures facing decision-makers in both domestic and foreign policy.\n\nStrategic studies scholars have developed a number of mechanisms for managing complexity in foreign policy. One of the most important is cautious anticipation, which means that decision-makers should, where possible, wait until sufficient factual information becomes available and the full dimensions of a situation have become clearer. They should also focus on creating conditions that may allow positive developments to emerge after sudden change, while taking advantage of opportunities that arise from within crises themselves, such as social solidarity during emergencies.\n\nAnother mechanism is to broaden the range of groups involved in foreign policy-making when managing complex situations. Encouraging disagreement can also help generate unconventional and innovative ideas for dealing with crises. In some cases, this may require changing the participants involved or redefining their roles according to the needs of the situation.\n\nSudan has long suffered from a genuine crisis in its foreign relations. It would not be an exaggeration to argue that many of the problems currently facing the country\u2014whether economic, political, or social\u2014might not have reached their present severity had it not been for the evident weaknesses in Sudanese foreign policy.\n\nThis is therefore one of the areas from which reform must begin. The foreign ministers who have successively held office cannot, of course, bear sole responsibility for the deterioration of Sudan\u2019s external relations. There have been particular circumstances and political positions, well known to all, that contributed to the worsening of relations between Sudan and some Arab and Western countries.\n\nThe Ministry of Foreign Affairs bears the responsibility of repairing the fractures that have affected Sudan\u2019s external relations. Yet it needs genuine support from all state institutions in order to undertake an unprecedented diplomatic effort aimed at overcoming the shortcomings of the past and opening a new chapter in Sudan\u2019s foreign relations\u2014one that moves decisively beyond the inward-looking approach that characterized the previous period.\n\nIn recent times, considerable efforts have been made to rebuild Sudan\u2019s foreign relations. These efforts have resulted in improvements in relations with some sister Arab states, while serious and carefully considered attempts have also been made to improve relations with major powers and influential regional actors. Despite the importance of these efforts, Sudan remains in urgent need, as we noted in an earlier article, of a clearly defined strategy to guide its foreign relations.\n\nAt the same time, Sudanese political decision-makers, like their counterparts around the world, face pressure from the international environment and the uncertainty and ambiguity described above. Their responsibility is to identify the safest path through these difficulties and challenges and to proceed with sound judgment in a way that protects the country from risks and unforeseen consequences. But how can this be achieved?\n\nThe challenges discussed above are general challenges associated with global transformations. This does not mean that states should simply surrender to them. Rather, they must adapt to the new reality and develop methods suited to it in order to protect and advance their highest national interests under conditions that are difficult to control, let alone change. As the saying goes, \u201cSuccess is to flow like water through the road of rocks.\u201d\n\nThe ambiguity, uncertainty, and lack of predictability discussed earlier can be reduced\u2014or at least their negative effects can be limited\u2014by ensuring that foreign policy decision-makers have access to accurate, comprehensive, and timely information.\n\nAs early as the 1940s, the American General William \u201cWild Bill\u201d Donovan, who headed the Office of the Coordinator of Information, advocated the creation of a strategic information service. He argued, in essence, that no foreign policy can be stronger than the information on which it is based. Sudan therefore needs an effective mechanism for providing foreign policy decision-makers with sufficient, accurate, and timely information, enabling them to develop a full understanding of the international and regional environments surrounding Sudan, including their actors and institutions. This would help them classify international actors, distinguish enemies, competitors, and friends, and subsequently adopt the most appropriate positions.\n\nInformation alone, however, is not sufficient. What is also required is what may be described as positive perception, because misperception is one of the principal causes of wars and conflicts between states. Even when accurate information is available, the way decision-makers perceive, interpret, and respond to that information plays a decisive role in shaping the decisions they ultimately make.\n\nBecause perception is partly psychological, its negative effects can best be reduced through institutionalized foreign policy decision-making. The weaker the institutional framework, the greater the influence of the individual decision-maker\u2019s personal perceptions and interpretations. Conversely, institutional decision-making incorporates multiple viewpoints, interpretations, and perceptions, increasing the likelihood of a more objective decision. Therefore, the best protection for Sudanese foreign policy decision-makers against falling into the trap of mistaken interpretations and perceptions is to entrust decision-making to institutions rather than individuals.\n\nAs is often the case with us, both at the governmental and societal levels, we frequently resort to wishful thinking\u2014seeing reality through the lens of what we desire rather than as it actually is. We therefore perceive events not according to their objective realities but according to how we would like them to be. The result is that we may become absorbed in unrealistic expectations while opportunities slip away, or we may coexist with challenges and problems without taking serious steps to confront and resolve them.\n\nSuch an approach is incompatible with the realities of international politics, which are characterized by conflicts, alliances, rapid responses to challenges, the exploitation of opportunities, intellectual engagement, and strategic planning.\n\nWe must also recognize the changes that have already transformed the international political environment and those that are likely to occur in the future. One of the recurring weaknesses in states\u2019 foreign policies is what may be called \u201cimage fixation,\u201d meaning the assumption that conditions will remain unchanged and the failure to notice early signs of transformation.\n\nRecognizing change and anticipating the future therefore require greater attention to futures studies, as well as the formation of research and discussion groups capable of examining emerging trends and anticipating possible outcomes. Futures studies are, in essence, a tool of the present that helps us understand the future so that we can exercise caution and prepare for what lies ahead.\n\nIn this regard, there is a strong need to revitalize the role of the Future Studies Center and provide it with the necessary financial and human resources to conduct forward-looking studies addressing Sudan\u2019s major issues from a scientific and anticipatory perspective. Particular priority should be given to Sudanese foreign policy in an era characterized by ambiguity, uncertainty, and declining predictability.","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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